Bundeshaushalt 1993 und 1994 durch Steuerreform und Konjunktureinbruch geprägt : [MPE]

Das Budget ist 1993 und 1994 von der schwachen Konjunktur und der Steuerreform geprägt. Die automatischen Stabilisatoren stützten die Nachfrage und verhinde rten damit einen noch stärkeren Konjunktureinbruch, gleichzeitig erhöhten sie aber das Defizit merklich. Die Steuerreform bringt ebenfalls zusätzliche Impu lse für den privaten Konsum und die privaten Investitionen (durch die Abschaf fung der Gewerbesteuer und der Vermögensteuer). Der Bundeshaushalt läßt Strukt urprobleme in der Finanzierung der Sozialausgaben und in den finanziellen Bezi ehungen zu anderen Bereichen des öffentlichen Sektors erkennen. Sie könnten k ünftig die Budgetkonsolidierung erschweren. In 1993 the federal government att empted to counter the effects of recession. As a result the preliminary net d eficit has risen to AS 98.2 billion, amounting to 4.7 percent of GDP. For 1994 a deficit of AS 80.7 billion (3.7 percent of GDP) is anticipated. The governm ent intends to resume its course of deficit reduction. In the budgets of 1993 and 1994 a number of structural problems exist which will make consolidation difficult. In 1993 tax receipts fell significantly below expectations. For the first time since the end of World War II federal net tax receipts (AS 339.1 b illion) were lower (by -0.3 percent) than a year earlier. At the same time fas t rising unemployment required higher expenditures. As a result, the deficit at the end of the year was 50 percent higher than anticipated in the budget pr oposal (AS 98.2 billion, instead of AS 64.1 billion). More than two thirds of this increase are due to the recession. The budget proposal for 1994 is marked by contradictory tendencies. On the one hand, the federal government is atte mpting to reduce the net deficit and revert back to a course of consolidation; on the other hand, the need to increase social expenditures (unemployment ins urance, family-related expenditures) as a result of the cyclical situation wi ll hinder this attempt. In addition, the second stage of the tax reform 1994 w ill reduce tax receipts, stabilizing the cyclical situation as well. The budge ts of 1993 and 1994 contain a number of structural problems which will make bu dget consolidation in the future difficult. In 1994 for the first time a numbe r of welfare state expenditures (unemployment insurance and family burden com pensation fund) will have to be financed by loans, as tied receipts will no lon ger cover expenditures. Also the new provision of caring for the disabled will require additional funds. In 1993 per capita civil service wages once again increased faster (by 5.5 percent) than had been expected due to the official w age settlement of 3.95 percent. This additional wage movement impedes future budget consolidation. While federal government investment expenditures had been sharply reduced in previous years, contributing significantly to deficit red uction, they have been increased both in 1993 and 1994. These increases act to stabilize the cyclical situation and simultaneously lay the groundwork for p ositive future growth.

Das Budget ist 1993 und 1994 von der schwachen Konjunktur und der Steuerreform geprägt. Die automatischen Stabilisatoren stützten die Nachfrage und verhinderten damit einen noch stärkeren Konjunktureinbruch, gleichzeitig erhöhten sie aber das Defizit merklich. Die Steuerreform bringt ebenfalls zusätzliche Impulse für den privaten Konsum und die privaten Investitionen (durch die Abschaffung der Gewerbesteuer und der Vermögensteuer). Der Bundeshaushalt läßt Strukturprobleme in der Finanzierung der Sozialausgaben und in den finanziellen Beziehungen zu anderen Bereichen des öffentlichen Sektors erkennen. Sie könnten künftig die Budgetkonsolidierung erschweren.

In 1993 the federal government attempted to counter the effects of recession. As a result the preliminary net deficit has risen to AS 98.2 billion, amounting to 4.7 percent of GDP. For 1994 a deficit of AS 80.7 billion (3.7 percent of GDP) is anticipated. The government intends to resume its course of deficit reduction. In the budgets of 1993 and 1994 a number of structural problems exist which will make consolidation difficult. In 1993 tax receipts fell significantly below expectations. For the first time since the end of World War II federal net tax receipts (AS 339.1 billion) were lower (by -0.3 percent) than a year earlier. At the same time fast rising unemployment required higher expenditures. As a result, the deficit at the end of the year was 50 percent higher than anticipated in the budget proposal (AS 98.2 billion, instead of AS 64.1 billion). More than two thirds of this increase are due to the recession. The budget proposal for 1994 is marked by contradictory tendencies. On the one hand, the federal government is attempting to reduce the net deficit and revert back to a course of consolidation; on the other hand, the need to increase social expenditures (unemployment insurance, family-related expenditures) as a result of the cyclical situation will hinder this attempt. In addition, the second stage of the tax reform 1994 will reduce tax receipts, stabilizing the cyclical situation as well. The budgets of 1993 and 1994 contain a number of structural problems which will make budget consolidation in the future difficult. In 1994 for the first time a number of welfare state expenditures (unemployment insurance and family burden compensation fund) will have to be financed by loans, as tied receipts will no longer cover expenditures. Also the new provision of caring for the disabled will require additional funds. In 1993 per capita civil service wages once again increased faster (by 5.5 percent) than had been expected due to the official wage settlement of 3.95 percent. This additional wage movement impedes future budget consolidation. While federal government investment expenditures had been sharply reduced in previous years, contributing significantly to deficit reduction, they have been increased both in 1993 and 1994. These increases act to stabilize the cyclical situation and simultaneously lay the groundwork for positive future growth.

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